In Nebraska, the USDA reports that corn condition rated 1% very poor, 1% poor, 10% fair, 63% good, and 25% excellent. Corn emerged was 84%, near 86% last year, but ahead of 78% for the five-year average. Nebraska corn growers planted 9.90 million acres this year, down 3% from 2020, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
U.S. corn prices recently have been above $6 per bushel and $14 per bushel for soybeans.
Both are well above most prices since 2013.
According to the U.S. Grains Council, China’s purchase of 10.744 MMT of corn (422.97 million bushels) for 2021/2022 — more than three months before the new marketing year even begins — sets a historic pace for U.S. export sales. Mexico, the second-highest U.S. corn purchaser, had also bought more than 1.808 MMT of corn (71.18 million bushels) for the new marketing year as of May 20.
Some of China’s recent purchases of U.S. corn will likely go into the country’s state reserves, but much will go directly to the feed and livestock industry, USGC reports.
“No one knows how much of China’s corn imports are going into official state reserves, but the amount going into reserves may be just for annual replenishment rather than for rebuilding depleted reserves,” said Bryan Lohmar, U.S. Grains Council director in China.
He said private stocks held by end users, however, are growing, prompted by the depletion of the temporary reserves built up in the early part of the last decade and sold off at auctions held every summer since 2016.
With these temporary reserves depleted, Lohmar said private end users are more exposed to supply shocks and, therefore, may be increasing their own private stocks and pipelines.
“The concern over depleted temporary reserves and greater exposure to supply shocks may be affecting official reserve decisions, too, so they may also be growing,” he said. “We just don’t know.”
In Nebraska, the USDA reports that corn condition rated 1% very poor, 1% poor, 10% fair, 63% good, and 25% excellent. Corn emerged was 84%, near 86% last year, but ahead of 78% for the five-year average.
Nebraska corn growers planted 9.90 million acres this year, down 3% from 2020, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service
Corn for grain production in Nebraska based on year-end surveys was estimated at a record high 1.79 billion bushels, up slightly from 2019, according to the USDA.
Nebraska exported $6.8 million of corn to China in 2019 and $13.5 million in distiller’ grain, which is a by-product of corn ethanol production.
Lohmar said corn feed demand in China has also increased due to the expansion of poultry production and the Chinese government’s aim to modernize its pork production. U.S. corn imports have been going directly to feed mills to support this demand.
“Higher corn inclusion in feed rations is associated with the larger, more modern, production facilities that are rapidly expanding at the expense of more rudimentary, village-level production that was hit hard by the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak,” Lohmar said.
While stock replenishment suggests some corn demand is short term and will not continue in future years, he said a large amount of wheat and rice going into feed rations could indicate that feed grain demand growth is real.
“USDA estimates 40 MMT of wheat (1.47 billion bushels) used for feed – far greater than any future year, and estimates at least 9 MMT of rice used for feed, also far greater than previous years,” Lohmar said. “Industry estimates are even greater. But these two food grains are even more sensitive than corn, so many expect that large substitution of wheat and rice into feed rations to replace corn will not last for more than one or two years, providing more opportunity for corn demand growth even as corn stocks rebuilding is satiated.
The United States has also shipped 5.8 million metric tons (228.33 million bushels) of sorghum to China as of May 20, with another 937,400 metric tons (36.9 million bushels) in outstanding sales. Nebraska exported $7 million of sorghum to China in 2019.
According to the Council’s grains in all forms (GIAF) portal, supplied with information obtained by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s (USDA FAS’s) Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS), the country shows total shipments of 96.9 million gallons of U.S. ethanol (2.31 million barrels) between September 2020 and March 2021.
Nebraska is the nation’s second leading producer of ethanol in the country.
June 06, 2021 at 08:00PM
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China, Mexico busy buying U.S. corn, on pace for record high - Grand Island Independent
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