The bulk of Mexico’s table grape deal is to run from the first week of May until mid-July, according to the Sonora Grape Growers Association (AALPUM). The group announced its 2021 grape estimate in a Zoom meeting late on March 30.
Marcos Camou, AALPUM association president, Juan Laborin, AALPUM general manager, and John Pandol, FPAA grape division chairman, presented the crop estimate.
AALPUM predicted Sonora will have promotable volumes of early green grapes by May 24-30, which is week 21. Early green promotable volumes will remain in the market until week 24, which is June 24-20.
AALPUM’s listed promotion dates take into account shipping from Nogales, not growing districts.
“There are reports of vineyards or parts of vineyards with very low yield prospects," said Laborin. "While those cases exist, it is far from the norm and not representative of the majority of vineyards. Over the years AALPUM has developed a robust methodology to create the crop estimate. The numbers that come out of the statistical model at the end of March predict within plus or minus 5 percent of the final crop.”
Sonora is projected to pack and ship 21.5 million 18-pound cartons, peaking in June.
AALPUM indicated this estimate is 2 percent less than the 2020 harvest and 11 percent less than the 2019 crop. The largest volume is white seedless varieties at 44 percent, followed by red seedless varieties at 43 percent, then black seedless varieties at 7 percent and then ‘other’ at 6, which includes Red Globes and specialty varieties like Cotton Candy.
Sonora’s red seedless volume for 2021 is predicted to be 9.32 million cartons, down from 9.49 million in 2020.
Early greens are to be down to 4.26 million boxes, down from 4.49 million boxes a year ago. The mid-season green volume is to be up this year to 5.27 million cartons, from 5.2 million.
Black grapes are slightly down — 1.55 million from 1.64 million in 2020.
Red Globe volume will be down about 100,000 boxes in 2021 — 365,000 from 458,380. Sonora’s red grape volume has shifted to be a couple weeks earlier than the last two seasons.
Cotton candy will also be slightly down, going from 753,310 in 2020 to 726,490.
Sonoran red seedless — and black — grape volumes are to hit promotable volume the week of May 31, running until the Fourth of July.
Midseason greens are expected to be in promotable volumes from June 24 into early July.
The March 30 Sonoran discussion generally excluded early production in Jalisco. But when asked, Laborin indicated that his grower-members producing in Jalisco began shipping in mid-March. Carlos Bon Jr. of Divine Flavor said the Jalisco deal will run until May 10-12. Laborin said volume for the new Jalisco deal will total between 1.8 million and 2 million boxes this spring.
Regarding Sonora, the peak season will involve shipping 53 percent of the crop in the three-week period between May 31 and June 20.
According to AALPUM, “Not long ago, 80 percent of the volume was three varieties; today 40 percent is over two dozen newer proprietary varieties. Sonora is the only growing area supplying North America that produces a majority of green seedless. Between 3 and 5 percent of the grape crop is certified organic.”
AALPUM considers its industry’s preseason to represent 10 percent of the season’s total volume, which is shipped prior to May 15, including Sonora and other early areas. Sonora’s early season runs May 16-30, involving 16 percent of its table grapes; 21percent of the crop will be shipped after June 21.
Pandol and Laborin thanked the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas for its large contribution to the Mexican grape industry, and they encouraged all of their members to join the FPAA, which is based in Nogales.
The Link LonkApril 01, 2021 at 10:06PM
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Promotable Mexican grape volumes on the way | Produce News - TheProduceNews.com
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