For some areas of the Midwest, the end of the month weather features moisture and the month of May is leaning wetter.
David Tolleris WxRisk.com, says that the eastern Corn Belt (ECB) and the Mid-South could see more rainfall than the western Corn Belt (WCB).
This week
"Today's radar shows a lot of rainstorms in central and southern Illinois, much of Missouri and northwest half of Arkansas, to eastern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, with additional stuff gone back into the Texas Panhandle and new Mexico," Tolleris stated in an email to Successful Farming.
There are no big changes seen with the current front, for the next few days, in terms of its impact on the central Plains and ECB.
There's a slow moving front in western Colorado and the Dakota states that contains significant rain associated with it. On top of that, there are warm temperatures in Mid-South that brings up moisture above those warm areas.
3-5 Day Outlook
For the next five days, it looks like 1-3.00" rain for most of Ohio, central Indiana and central Illinois, most of Missouri, Arkansas and eastern half of Oklahoma and Texas.
Some of those Texas rains could be closer to 4-5.00" rains.
During this same timeframe, the western Corn Belt is expected to get next to nothing, in the way of moisture.
"Iowa is dry, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and northern Illinois will be dry.
That weather pattern is going to repeat itself, according to Tolleris.
6-10 Day Outlook
The 6-10 day weather system on May 2 and 3 looks wetter for all of the Midwest including the western Corn Belt (WCB).
"The front with that second system on May 3, will push into the deep South on May 4 and 5 with significant rain for the Southern states," he says.
11-15 Day Weather Outlook
There is a bit of a break, followed by a larger significant system on May 9, May 10, and May 11, which will impact the central upper Plains and all of the Midwest with significant rains over a two or three-day timeframe.
"In short, midday models are supporting my claim made from last Friday that with this big trough constantly sitting on the West Coast it would turn the pattern wetter for the Plains and the Midwest for the month of May," Tolleris says.
For 11-15 day forecast, initially, on May 5, heavy rains will push through the eastern Corn Belt and then a lot of rain comes through Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Alabama and Mississippi.
Interestingly enough, most of these rain events will not be impacting the western Corn Belt.
"The western Corn Belt looks dry in the month of May. All models are showing that they (WCB states) miss out on the rain."
Floods in Mid-South?
Heavy rains are scheduled to arrive in the Mid-South on Thursday and Friday.
"Part of the problem for the ground in the southern states is that they are fairly saturated. For parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, the soil moisture map shows those grounds' moisture levels above normal. So, this week's big rains will prevent the ground from drying out," Tolleris says.
"There are rainfall events that could drop between 2.00-8.00" between Tennessee to Arkansas. Mississippi and Alabama farm fields could see 2.00" rains, Thursday and Friday," he says.
U.S. Weather Pattern
The U.S. is getting this persistent trough on the west coast of North America. And that is being dominated by a lot of cold water in the Pacific Ocean that runs from Alaska to Baha, California.
"So, the cold water is bringing the jet stream into a different configuration. And that configuration is a big trough running from Alaska to California," Tolleris says.
This trough is projecting waves of low pressure eastward into the Plains and the Midwest.
At the same time, that trough is causing a ridge to form over the U.S. Southeastern states.
"The trough on the west coast is creating a ridge on the east coast. And that pumps up the moisture and pumps up the temperatures," he says.
Overall, the month of May looks to be a fairly rainy month, except in the WCB.
Brazil Weather
The U.S. is not the only place in the world that is concerned about the weather patterns for this year's crops' growing season.
In Brazil, crop conditions for that country's second corn crop continue to deteriorate. For example, in the southern state of Parana, the corn condition rating has dropped to 40% good from 62% good a week earlier.
Dry weather has gripped Brazil's corn crop.
Brazilian farmers are experiencing a dry cycle.
This upcoming week's forecast has 1.00-3.00" rains hitting Uruguay, southern Brazil and eastern Argentina.
It's worth noting that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) weather pattern has moved into its phase-8 cycle without much rain.
"This cycle typically brings rainfall with it. Central and eastern Brazil normally get above rainfall in April and May, due to the MJO. So, Brazilian states such as Goias, Tocatins, Sao Paulo, receive a wet pattern with phase-8 MJO cycle," Tolleris says.
He added, "The problem is that that wet pattern is not showing up and that is worrisome."
The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, on average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Ukraine/Russia
Climate models continue to show crop-weather problems for Ukraine and Russia, this summer, Tolleris says.
"The models continue to show dry conditions for the former Soviet Union (FSU) region," Tolleris says. The months of June, July and August look really dry for this region. The wheat and corn, and oat crops will be in the middle of their growing seasons, during that timeframe."
Canadian Drought
All winter long, the Canadian Prairie region has had a lack of moisture.
Plus, the forecast doesn't call for any rain this week and only light rain in week two.
"They have no moisture in the ground at all in any portion of the Canadian Prairies. Some areas have less than 1.00" in the subsurface. Canada is entering a drought and people are starting to freak out there," Tolleris says.
The Link LonkApril 29, 2021 at 03:39AM
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Midsouth and eastern Corn Belt planting to see rain delays, forecaster says - Successful Farming
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