Excessive rains in February have caused a delay for farmers in field preparation such as lime and herbicide applications to burn down cover crops. Soggy fields have resulted in equipment getting stuck.
Cameron farmer Josh Johnson loads quail manure in preparation for spreading it for use as fertilizer. Johnson says the fertilizer will be used on about 100 acres of heirloom Jimmy Red corn. The corn will be shipped to High Wire Distillery in Charleston, where it will be used to make bourbon.
The winter's chill and the land's dormancy will soon be a memory as Calhoun County farmers ready for spring plantings.
But 2021 is bringing with it a sense of unease among county farmers about what the year may or may not bring.
On the plus side, Calhoun County farmers are facing relatively decent and attractive commodity prices heading into the spring 2021 planting season.
Reaping the benefits from those prices while combating the myriad of uncertainties surrounding Mother Nature, rising equipment costs due to the supply issues surrounding COVID-19 and international trade markets will be the three-headed dragon farmers will set out to conquer.
“Commodity prices have seen a steady increase over the past few months with opportunities to lock in profits,” Calhoun County Clemson Extension Agent Charles Davis said. “Many farmers I have talked to have taken advantage of these opportunities to varying degrees.”
“Farmers have to weigh the weather predictions and their crop history and lock in a price on only what they think they can safely deliver,” Davis said. “Fortunately, farmers have several pricing options at their disposal to lessen the risk.”
Davis said agriculture is in constant flux as it relates to markets, weather and the economy and that any predictions made as far out as the publication date of this article may be inaccurate.
In a March 11 interview, Davis said based on current conditions, he foresees Calhoun County farmers planting more corn and cotton, and less peanuts.
Soybeans in Calhoun County, while typically not a large part of the crop acreage due to conflicts with peanut acres, could become somewhat more of an attractive commodity due to current soybean prices.
“Planting windows can be affected by weather, and a continued wet spring may lead to more cotton acres or more soybean acres,” Davis said.
Davis said the current improvement in crop prices has been fueled by several factors.
“For grain prices, corn and soybeans in particular, increased demand and low carryover have had a positive effect,” he said. “Cotton has fared well based on improving demand and slightly declining world stocks. Peanut prices have improved slightly based on increased demand.”
But planting decisions – though based on profit – are complicated.
They are based on a number of factors including expected production of the commodity based on how many acres are to be planted, risk factors related to long-range weather predictions, international markets, trade wars and carryover, or the amount of a crop still left in the system from the previous year.
“Decisions that Calhoun County farmers make are absolutely affected by world events, both good and bad,” Davis said. “The global pandemic is a perfect example. While the effect initially was negative, economies that are rebounding or predicted to rebound will provide opportunities for better commodity prices based on anticipated improved economies.”
Meanwhile, the excessive rains in February have caused a delay for farmers in field preparation such as lime and herbicide applications to burn down cover crops. Soggy fields have resulted in equipment getting stuck.
“Very few of our fields are flat,” Davis said. “Most have one or more bottoms in them, which in many instances are full of water, so doing a complete job of spreading lime and applying burn-down herbicides is nearly impossible. Regardless, farmers do the best they can, given the circumstances.”
Fertilizer prices are also up, particularly phosphorus.
“The slowdown in production and transportation attributed to the restrictions related to the COVID-19 virus are leading to large increases in prices for commonly used farm related materials,” Davis said. “Tractor parts, fertilizer, agricultural chemicals are all on tight supply chains. Planning ahead helps, but things break, and the parts needed today might not be available. Those that are cost more.”
Davis also noted forecasts are calling for a dryer-than-normal year during the growing season.
“Fortunately, nearly half of the planted acreage in Calhoun County is irrigated,” Davis said. “While a farmer can’t afford to supply all of a crop’s needs through irrigation, it does help get through the dry spells.”
Prices for many major commodities are expected to remain strong or move even higher for this year's crops based on strong domestic and export demand.
The global economy is expected to recover and China increases its already strong demand for U.S. corn, soybeans and meat.
USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer cautioned there are still several uncertainties about the farm economy, including about consumer spending as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are also some lingering impacts of the pandemic on supply chains, including higher prices for shipping containers due to a lingering shortage.
In assessing the farming year heading into spring planting, Calhoun County farmer Drake Perrow said for the first time in many years, commodity prices are at a level that producers have something to smile about.
The question is will they stay at the level until it it time to sell?
"We will have to wait and see, but it gives hope for the upcoming year," Perrow said. "All commodities are at a level where if we make a good crop, we can make some money."
Perrow is optimistic that while the last five years have been difficult, 2021 could be a year where every crop does well.
"Last year was a record year for corn yields, so more corn will probably be planted if that producer has the equipment and storage to handle it," he said. "Cotton acres should increase as prices are at a level that we can make some money. Personally, I think peanut acres will be down some as they are the most expensive crop to grow and prices are so-so."
Cameron farmer Josh Johnson is planning to plant about 500 acres of corn, 600 acres of peanuts and 300 acres of cotton.
Johnson said his rationale for planting corn is that the crop is typically grown before the unpredictable hurricane and flood season later in the summer and corn prices are also up making them more attractive.
"Peanut prices are up and we like growing peanuts," he said.
Cotton prices remaining relatively stable have also prompted Johnson to remain stable with his plantings.
Johnson spent the early part of March spreading some quail litter and regular fertilizer in this fields in preparation for planting in the middle to latter part of March.
There were 9,311 acres of corn planted in Calhoun County in 2020, much of it irrigated. The planted acreage was in line with 2019 plantings.
Last year, dryland corn was one of the best the area has seen in recent memory thanks to abundant spring rainfall and moderate temperatures.
Prices for the 2021 corn crop are expected to average $4.20 per bushel in 2021, down from $4.30 on the 2020 crop.
But the strong demand for corn in China could mean a spike of corn plantings this year.
Corn is typically planted in the area in April, with harvest in late July and early August.
Last year, about 20,274 acres of the crop were planted. This was down from the 25,000 planted acres in 2019. Acreage was down last year due to low cotton prices.
Prices for the 2021 cotton crop are forecast at 75 cents per pound, up from 68 cents for 2020. Last year, cotton pretty much hovered in the 60-cent-per-pound range.
Cotton prices heading into planting have been variable, according to Southern Growers Inc. Cotton Marketing Cotton Marketing News.
March futures were breaking about 87 cents per pound, just about where growers would like to see them. May futures were also hovering around 88 cents per pound.
Cotton forecasters say prices will continue to advance because so many futures contracts must be bought so mills can meet their futures market obligations.
It is this buying that will drive prices higher. Prices are on track to move to the dollar level and beyond.
The problem with these prices, experts say, is that the price will be too high, and it will eventually harm cotton demand.
The National Cotton Council is expecting according to its annual cotton survey that acreage will be down, though if cotton prices continue to be at 80 cents a pound, that could mean the crop is more attractive.
Corn and soybean prices are also expected to be higher in 2021, also limiting cotton acreage, though crop-rotation challenges will also be a factor.
Cotton is typically planted in the area about the middle of April into May, with harvest September through November.
Peanut prices continue to remain stagnant in the $425 to $450-per-ton range.
Last year, about 10,178 acres of peanuts were planted.
Peanuts could see a decrease in acreage thanks to relatively robust corn and cotton prices. Peanut contracts will have to be more competitively priced for growers to plant more acres.
Farmers are beginning to think about 2021 crop contracting, and an estimated price of at least $475 per farmer-stock ton is needed to draw interest.
The increase in cotton prices will possibly lead to a decrease in peanut acreage.
The sheller’s dilemma is paying the farmer a higher price if the buyers are not needing to make any purchases.
The international peanut market is also seeing some firmness.
Brazil is completely out of the current crop, and Argentina has little inventory available until a new crop is harvested. China continues to show interest for U.S. farmer-stock peanuts, but time will tell if their interest will continue and lead to more purchasing.
With demand for peanuts up at home and abroad, coupled with some favorable prices, this year yet could be a good one for peanuts.
Peanuts typically are planted in the middle of April depending on varieties, with harvest around the middle of August.
Soybeans are rare in Calhoun County as is typical each year. Last year, there were about 2,805 acres planted.
Soybean futures will be hovering in the $12 to $14 range.
Soybean prices are expected to average $11.15 on the 2020 crop and rise again to $11.25 on this year’s crop. Soybean prices will be robust thanks to China demand.
Soybeans are planted typically from April through early May and harvested in September.
March 21, 2021 at 11:00AM
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More cotton and corn, fewer peanuts expected in Calhoun - The Times and Democrat
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