BEIJING, Jan 12 (Reuters) - China's agriculture ministry on Tuesday raised its forecasts for corn imports in 2020/21 year amid rising domestic prices and healthy demand from a steadily recovering pig herd. China was expected to import 10 million tonnes of corn in the 2020/21 marketing year, the ministry said, raising its forecast from 7 million tonnes the previous month, as the "price difference between domestic and international corn keeps enlarging". Domestic corn prices hit record highs this week. Corn consumption in feed was seen at 185 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from its previous forecast, as pig production recovery is better than expected, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly report. Industrial demand for corn, however, was expected to fall to 82 million tonnes as soaring prices further squeeze margins for processing firms and cut operation rates at their plants, the ministry said. It lowered its forecasts for corn output in 2020/21 to 260.67 million tonnes from 264.71 million the previous month. China was expected to import 98.1 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2020/21 marketing year, up from a previous forecast of 95.1 million tonnes, on rising demand to produce soymeal to feed the livestock sector. Key numbers from the monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) are below: 2018/ 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21 Percentage 2019 January December January change Estimate Forecast Forecast Corn - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 42.13 41.28 41.82 41.26 -1.34% acreage (mln hectares) Output 257.1 260.77 264.71 260.67 -1.53% (mln 7 tonnes) Imports 4.48 7.60 7.00 10.00 42.86% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 279.7 278.30 288.17 289.16 0.34% on (mln 8 tonnes) Exports 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance -18.1 -9.94 -16.48 -18.51 12.32% (mln 5 tonnes) Soybean - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 8.40 9.35 9.60 9.88 2.94% acreage (mln hectares) Output 16.00 18.10 18.82 19.60 4.14% (mln tonnes) Imports 82.61 98.53 95.10 98.10 3.15% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 102.9 108.60 113.12 116.12 2.65% on (mln 3 tonnes) Exports 0.12 0.09 0.15 0.15 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance -4.44 7.94 0.65 1.43 120.00% (mln tonnes) Cotton - crop year Sept-Aug Beginning 7.43 7.21 7.36 7.36 0.00% stocks (mln tonnes) Planted 3.37 3.30 3.21 3.17 -1.28% acreage (mln hectares) Output 6.04 5.80 5.85 5.91 1.03% (mln tonnes) Imports 2.03 1.60 2.00 2.10 5.00% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 8.24 7.23 8.00 8.00 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.00% (mln tonnes) Ending 7.21 7.36 7.16 7.32 2.23% Stocks (mln tonnes) Sugar - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 1.44 1.38 1.45 1.45 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Cane 1.21 1.17 1.19 1.19 0.00% Beet 0.24 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.00% Output 10.76 10.42 10.50 10.50 0.00% (mln tonnes) Cane 9.44 9.02 8.96 8.96 0.00% sugar Beet 1.32 1.39 1.54 1.54 0.00% sugar Imports 3.24 3.76 3.90 3.90 0.00% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 15.20 15.00 15.30 15.30 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance -1.40 -1.00 -1.08 -1.08 0.00% (mln tonnes) Edible oils - crop year Oct-Sept Output 25.49 28.21 27.65 28.16 1.84% (mln tonnes) Soybean 14.31 17.01 16.58 17.10 3.14% oil Rapeseed 5.69 5.65 5.26 5.26 0.00% Peanut 3.18 3.24 3.39 3.39 0.00% oil Imports 8.55 9.27 8.45 8.45 0.00% (mln tonnes) Palm oil 4.95 4.62 4.20 4.20 0.00% Rapeseed 1.51 1.90 1.80 1.80 0.00% Soybean 0.78 0.96 0.70 0.70 0.00% oil Consumpti 33.38 32.9 33.82 33.82 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance 0.40 2.93 2.02 1.03 -49.01% (mln tonnes) CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state reserves. Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and imports, minus consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only includes the balance at the end of the crop year. This appears to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus consumption and exports. (Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; editing by Jason Neely)
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TABLE-China raises 2020/21 corn, soybean imports outlook on rising demand - Successful Farming
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