FORT COLLINS, Colo. (Reuters) - Speculators continued covering short positions in Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds last week ahead of fresh U.S. government supply and demand estimates, as China continued its U.S. buying streak, particularly in soybeans.
In the week ended Sept. 8, money managers boosted their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 173,907 contracts from 162,607 a week earlier, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
That was lighter buying than trade sources predicted for the week, and the move was largely due to new longs. Funds’ new soy stance is their most bullish for the time of year since 2012, and they are predicted to have bought 21,500 futures over the last three sessions.
If that soybean buying was realized, investors closed out last week on their most optimistic note since March 2018, when most-active futures were trading around $10.40 per bushel.
Soy futures settled at $9.96 per bushel on Friday, the contract’s highest since early June 2018. Futures have risen 4.5% this month, aided by continuous U.S. export bookings from China and a poor finish to the U.S. growing season.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday cut U.S. soybean production by 2.5% from its prior estimate, which slashed 2020-21 carryout projections by 25% when combined with some old-crop demand adjustments.
Export demand continues at a strong clip. USDA confirmed U.S. soybean sales to China on all four trading days last week, totaling 1.36 million tonnes. Unknown buyers grabbed another 354,000 tonnes.
As of Sept. 8, producers were holding a net short in soybean futures and options of 302,565 contracts, their largest ever for the time of year. They had sold nearly 90,000 contracts in the middle week of August.
Money managers’ net long in soybean meal more than doubled in the week ended Sept. 8, jumping to 32,119 futures and options contracts from 15,871 in the week before. Trade sources place the fund meal long above 40,000 contracts by Friday’s close.
Funds slightly increased bullish bets in soybean oil futures and options to 85,299 contracts through Sept. 8 from 81,557 a week earlier. Both new longs and short covering have been a theme in soybean oil for the last four weeks, and funds were pegged as slight net buyers over the last three sessions.
On Friday, most-active soybean meal posted its highest close since March 30, and soybean oil settled at the highest mark since Jan. 14.
GRAINS
In the week ended Sept. 8, money managers extended their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 33,494 contracts from 18,659 a week prior. Funds covered nearly 200,000 corn shorts in the four weeks ended Sept. 8, and the latest move was driven by short covering once again.
USDA also docked the U.S. corn crop by 2.5% on Friday, though the resulting stocks were a bit heavier than analysts expected. Carryout dropped by 9% from the August estimate to 2.5 billion bushels, still a 33-year high but well below the 3.3 billion expected in June.
Most-active corn futures are up 3% on the month so far, having been supported by lower U.S. harvest prospects and strong Chinese buying, just as in soybeans. Futures finished at $3.68-1/2 per bushel on Friday, their strongest close since March 11.
Trade sources peg Wednesday-Friday fund buying in corn futures at 23,500 contracts.
Speculators cut down on optimism in Chicago wheat through Sept. 8, though they were buyers of Kansas City and Minneapolis. Funds reduced their net CBOT long to 23,175 futures and options contracts from 32,469 a week earlier, and they were seen as slight sellers in the days since.
Short covering lifted money managers’ net long in K.C. wheat futures and options to 8,923 contracts from 3,160. The same phenomenon slashed their net short in Minneapolis wheat to 4,921 contracts from 10,052 a week earlier, and that was despite futures falling nearly 2% during the period.
Funds covered more than 12,000 Minneapolis wheat shorts in the two weeks ended Sept. 8, the most ever for a two-week stretch.
The wheat contracts were weaker to end the week as USDA’s Friday estimates served as a reminder of plentiful global wheat supplies.
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
Editing by Daniel Wallis
September 14, 2020 at 06:41PM
https://ift.tt/2ZASSjs
Column: Funds boost bullish corn and soy bets on Chinese demand, smaller U.S. crops - Reuters UK
https://ift.tt/3gguREe
Corn
No comments:
Post a Comment