WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Corn production for grain is forecast at 15.3 billion bushels, up 12% from 2019, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average 181.8 bushels per harvested acre, up 14.4 bushels from last year.
“That bumps up the ending stocks estimate at the end of the 2020 crop season, which is next summer, to a 19% carryover going into the 2021 harvest,” said James Mintert, director of the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture. “That gives us the largest corn carryovers as a percentage of usage since 2004.
“That does give us a low marketing year average price estimate for corn. USDA’s estimate was $3.10. That compared to $3.60 for the 2019 crop year. That’s the lowest marketing year average forecast from USDA since the 2006 crop year, when the average was just $3.04.”
Area harvested for grain is forecast at 84 million acres, unchanged from the June report, but up 3% from last year.
Weak ethanol demand and export challenges have been a problem for corn markets in 2020, Mintert said.
“The USDA is forecasting recovery in U.S. exports to 2.23 billion bushels,” he said. “That’s about a 24% increase in exports, which is a pretty substantial recovery and really implies strong economic growth around the world.”
Soybean Outlook
Soybean production for beans is forecast at 4.425 billion bushels, up 25% from 2019. Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average a record high 53.3 bushels per acre, up 5.9 bushels from 2019.
Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 83 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast, but up 11% from 2019.
“Near record soybean production is expected, very close to where we were a couple of years ago,” Mintert said. “The USDA is forecasting a modest year-to-year decline in ending stocks as percent of usage, but that’s still a pretty big number at 14%, compared to 16% last year.”
Export forecasts for soybeans are relatively optimistic, Mintert said.
“The USDA is forecasting just a little over 2.1 billion bushels, up from 1.65 billion bushels, 29% above where we were in the 2019 marketing year,” he said. “A lot of that is tied to what happens in respects to China, and a lot of that continues to be a wild card.
“Where does that leave us in terms of a marketing year average? $8.35 for the 2020 marketing year versus $8.55 for the 2019 marketing year, down from USDA’s forecast a month ago.”
View the complete WASDE report at www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
August 29, 2020 at 02:43AM
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