How good will depend on effect of dry August
After record corn yields in 2018 and a somewhat disappointing harvest last year, local crop experts are expecting 2020 to split the difference.
If that holds, central Illinois farmers would average 220 to 230 bushels per acre on their corn crop, according to staff at Topflight Grain Cooperative, which performed its annual crop tour over the past week in Piatt, Macon and Logan Counties.
Word is that plant ears look good, but that a lack of rain in August could detract from kernel weight.
“Corn is finishing up a little fast,” said Topflight Grain Merchandiser Jeremy Glauner. “In the last couple of years we've had a nice long finish to the crop, and that adds weight to the corn. I'm a little suspicious of this year's crop. If it's finishing a little fast, you're not going to get that extra boost of yields.”
TopFlight General Manager Derrick Bruhn said this year's crop tour showed “less disease pressure than last year” on area corn, but that there was some crop tip back (unfinished ears), possible due to the hot, dry June and July.
If area farmers net 220 to 230 bushels per acre, that would follow a down year of 200 bushel corn during 2018's short growing season. The year prior, Illinois farmers saw a bumper crop, including a 241.8 bpa average in Piatt County, where TopFlight's main office is located.
The largest wildcard is the lack of rain in August. Bruhn said only .4 of an inch of precipitation has fallen in Monticello this month, and only 1.2 inches in some other areas of the county.
Glauner said United States Department of Agriculture surveys on Aug. 1 estimated a record corn yield nationally of 181.8 bushels per acre, but added that figures have been adjusted downward into the 170's by other estimators since that time, partially due to the lack of rain.
He said the USDA opted not to use field samples in developing estimates this year, instead relying on farmer surveys and satellite data.
Soybeans
Soybean yields are trickier to peg, since they develop later and could benefit more from late rain. But Bruhn said they could approach 2018 levels with some showers in the next two weeks.
“There are some pods that are not fully developed that, if the plant does not get enough moisture here in the next 10 days, two weeks, they're going to abort those pods,” he said. “So even though our (pod) count was close to a 2018 count, I'm not sure if we'll end up with as close as 2018,” when Piatt County averaged 77.4 bushels per acre on soybeans.
Bruhn thought that, with timely rains, this year's crop could get into the low 70's. There were no official figures generated for Piatt County regarding soybeans in 2019, but Bruhn thought they averaged in the high-60 bushels per acre locally.
The Link LonkAugust 29, 2020 at 07:19PM
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