On Wednesday, the CME Group’s farm markets continue to try and fight off pressure.
At midsession, the Sept. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.10. Dec. corn futures 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.22 3/4.
Sept. soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $8.76. November soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $8.77 1/4.
Sep. wheat futures are 2¢ higher at $5.10.
Sep. soymeal futures are $0.50 per short ton lower at $285.30. Sept. soy oil futures are $0.20 cent lower at 30.85¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.22 per barrel higher at $42.92. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 298 points higher.
Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the grains are mixed today with a small short covering bounce in corn.
“Also, pre-estimates for next week's crop report gives the market uncertainty. Non-threatening weather has taken premiums out, and China still continues to have a strong appetite for U.S soybeans, as the U.S. dollar trends lower,” Roose says.
On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 192,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.63 per barrel higher at $43.33. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 274 points higher.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching crop ratings for price direction.
“Crop ratings are among the highest ever seen for this time of year. Soybean prices also came under pressure as the forecast for August is showing chances of rain in key areas while the heat is manageable. Soybean crop ratings are also very impressive for this time of year,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
He added, “The bears have control of the corn and wheat markets. Soybeans closing under the 40-day average for the first time since June 1 could be the beginning of a longer-term bearish shift in momentum.”
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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review
On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets sink, with the soybean complex taking the biggest haircut.
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 9½¢ lower at $3.08. Dec. corn futures finished 8½¢ lower at $3.20¾.
Sept. soybean futures closed 13¼¢ lower at $8.79¾. November soybean futures ended 14¾¢ lower at $8.81¼.
Sep. wheat futures closed 12¾¢ lower at $5.08¼.
Sep. soymeal futures settled $3.50 per short ton lower at $285.80. Sept. soy oil futures closed 0.17¢ lower at 31.05¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.59 per barrel higher at $41.60. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points higher.
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the markets fell due to stronger crop ratings and big crop estimates for Brazil.
“We had no export demand in the daily announcements, so that was negative as well. But everyone is talking about super yield potential and maybe some record crops. Not sure if records are out there, but it is in fact a very nice looking crop for just about all major production areas. And, we need to find a home for it, which will be hard as there are nice crops about everywhere in the world. Going to be a bearish year from the looks of it,” Scoville says.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching for Iowa’s crop ratings to improve.
“The USDA Crop Progress report showed a corn rating unchanged from last week and soybean ratings up 1%. Conditions are well above the five-year average and soybean ratings are at the highest level ever for this time of year,” Kluis told customers in a daily note. Current crop ratings are suggesting a better-than-trendline yield. “I expect the corn crop to be very close to a new record yield. If the forecast rain hits in August, then we will have a new record soybean yield for the 2020 crop.”
He added, “How much rain will hit in Iowa, and when? Crop conditions continue to decline with corn ratings down 3% in the report last week and down another 4% in the report yesterday. Soybean ratings are down 6% over the last two weeks. Also watch the topsoil moisture ratings. Last week, 32% of Iowa was reported as short- to very-short moisture. The report yesterday showed topsoil moisture 47% short-to-very-short.”
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Monday’s Grain Markets Review
On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets lean on the soybean market for strength.
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 1½¢ higher at $3.17¼. Dec. corn futures closed 1½¢ higher at $3.28½.
Sept. soybean futures settled 2¾¢ higher at $8.93. November soybean futures ended 3¾¢ higher at $8.96¼.
Sep. wheat futures closed 10½¢ lower at $5.21¼.
Sep. soymeal futures closed $1.90 per short ton lower at $289.30. Sept. soy oil futures closed 0.75¢ higher at 31.22¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.72 per barrel higher at $40.99. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 266 points higher.
On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 260,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 8,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year and 252,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
Britt O’Connell, cash adviser for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that without much by way of news, the markets continue to take their lead from the weather, which is favorable for strong yields.
“Expectations right now are for the USDA to raise both corn and soybean yields. The trade seems to be expecting a push in yield toward 51 to 52 bushels. Assuming no other changes, ending stocks would push to 525 million. Traders have corn yields being raised toward 183 to 185 bushels per acre. Should we see a 3% increase in yields, ending stocks would be pushed back over the 3-billion-bushel mark,” O’Connell says.
She added, “With large yields and ample supplies projected it has been very hard to get the market excited about higher prices despite China’s active buying pattern. China’s domestic corn prices have surged to record levels. Continued buying should not come as a shock and is much needed,” O’Connell says.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that higher crop prospects pressure prices.
“The USDA Crop Progress report today will show corn conditions steady to 1% better and soybeans up 1% to 2%. This (plus a very favorable weather forecast) suggests we have the potential for record corn and soybean yields in 2020,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
He added, “Watch the gold futures market and the U.S. dollar. The higher gold market and lower U.S. dollar are both very favorable over the long term for the entire commodity complex.”
The Link LonkAugust 05, 2020 at 08:55PM
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Corn attempts a price rebound Wednesday - Successful Farming
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