On Wednesday, the CME Group's farm markets close mostly lower.
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 4 1/2¢ lower at $3.15 1/4. Dec. corn futures closed 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.26.
Sept. soybean futures settled 3 1/4¢ lower at $8.84 3/4. November soybean futures ended 2¢ lower at $8.85 1/4.
Sep. wheat futures closed 9¢ higher at $5.32 1/4.
Sep. soymeal futures finished $1.90 per short ton lower at $289.90. Sept. soy oil futures settled $0.19 cent higher at 29.72¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.17 per barrel higher at $41.21. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that higher crop prospects pressure prices.
“With a timely rain in August, we are setting up for a record soybean yield. The current crop rating matches the 2014 soybean crop rating, the highest on record,” Kluis told customers in a daily note. “The Energy Information Agency reports come out this morning. U.S. crude oil inventories have been increasing as more of the U.S. again begins to shut down. Also watch ethanol usage and inventory. Usage has been tracking higher, and inventories are very close to last year’s supply.”
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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review
On Tuesday, the CME Group’s farm markets lack any fresh news to trade.
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 5¢ lower at $3.20¼. Dec. corn futures ended 4¾¢ lower at $3.30¾.
Sept. soybean futures closed 11¢ lower at $8.87¾. November soybean futures finished 12½¢ lower at $8.87¼.
Sep. wheat futures ended 4½¢ lower at $5.23¼.
Sep. soymeal futures settled $3.50 per short ton lower at $291.80. Sept. soy oil futures closed 0.18¢ lower at 29.53¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.48 per barrel lower at $41.12. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the markets fell due to stronger crop ratings.
“A big move downward in the soybean market, today, with the improved crop ratings and no demand from China being the big headlines. Corn was down on the crop ratings as well. Looks like the board wants to see continued Chinese demand. So, one day when it doesn’t show, everyone gets nervous. Also, the war of words and political actions between the U.S. and China doesn’t help,” Scoville says.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that demand and crop ratings will determine the direction of prices.
“The USDA Crop Progress report showed corn and soybean ratings improving by 3%. This was better than expected and has the corn and soybean markets under pressure,” Kluis told customers in a daily note. “Current crop ratings suggest a slightly higher-than-trendline corn and soybean crop in the United States. Corn ratings are 5% above the five-year average of 67%, and soybean ratings are 5% above the five-year average of 67%.”
Kluis added, “How much corn will China buy in the next month? Corn futures in China rallied to $8.44 per bushel yesterday. That suggests a lot of U.S. corn will start to move to China from the United States. With the hard down-move in the U.S. dollar, U.S. corn exports are competitive in the global export market.”
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Tuesday’s Grain Market Review
DES MOINES, Iowa -- At the close of CME Group trading Monday, soybean gains shifted slightly into positive territory and corn settled lower.
September corn futures finished 1¼¢ lower at $3.25. Dec. corn futures ended ½¢ lower at $3.34½.
Aug. soybean futures finished 1¾¢ higher at $9.06½. November soybean futures are ½¢ higher at $8.99¾.
Sep. wheat futures settled 11¾¢ lower at $5.27¾.
Sep. soymeal futures ended $1.80 per short ton higher at $295.30. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.20¢ lower at 29.60¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.50 per barrel higher at $41.79. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 64 points higher.
Jack Scoville of PRICE Futures Group offers some reasons why soybean prices sometimes seemed soft during trading Monday.
“The beans are being helped by continuous Chinese demand, BUT THE DEMAND IS STILL BEHIND THE PACE NEEDED TO COMPLETE PHASE 1 SO NO ONE IS TOO EXCITED BY THE NEWS,” he says. “The weather is better with the heat of last weekend gone and now cooler temperatures and some showers are in the region. Good for the crops. Wheat is still a function of EU and Russian prices which must be fading today. There’s more talk of the US Dollar which is now at contract lows and looking weak. That could support exports.”
Don Roose of U.S. Commodities says improved weather and lower palm oil prices are putting downward pressure on soybeans but that soybean prices rose 26 cents a bushel overnight in China’s futures market.
“Improved weather pushes us down. Palm oil pushes us down, but the Chinese buying gives us support,” Roose says. Soybean prices are also helped by the price for U.S. beans being the lowest globally. And the dollar, which is down sharply today, also helps all U.S. commodity exports.
Weather is putting downward pressure on corn futures, Roose says.
After weekend rains, “I would say the dry areas shrank,” Roose says. “”I would say 30% of Iowa is in need of a rain yet.”
“It’s unfortunate if you didn’t get the rain but the cool temperatures are helpful also,” he says. Better weather will help the corn crop where pollination isn’t complete and will help with grain fill.
For that reason, Roose doesn’t expect a big change in the U.S. corn crop condition that will be out later today from USDA--perhaps staying the same as in last week’s Crop Progress report at 69% good to excellent or possibly going up to 70% good to excellent.
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DES MOINES, Iowa -- At midsession Monday, ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report, grain futures are down with even soybeans fractionally lower.
In late morning trading, the September corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.24¼. Dec. corn futures are 1½¢ lower at $3.33½.
Aug. soybean futures are ¼¢ lower at $9.04½. November soybean futures are ¼¢ lower at $8.99.
Sep. wheat futures are 9¼¢ lower at $5.30¼.
Sep. soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $294.50. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.24¢ lower at 29.56¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.65 per barrel lower at $40.64. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 74 points higher.
Exports continue to support soybean prices while pockets of drought in the Corn Belt aren’t enough to excite traders.
“Chinese purchases have definitely supported the soybean complex,” says Matt Tranel of the Commodity Risk Management Group. “We’ve been trading between $8.90 and $9.00 for the majority of the past few weeks. We’re crossing our fingers that beans can break out higher as optimism continues for additional Chinese purchases. Weather over the past week or so throughout the United States has been hot. Regardless, crop conditions continue to look good, and that is keeping the corn market very calm. Most in the trade are anticipating another bin buster for corn so a large push higher seems unlikely at this point.”
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DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Monday, soybean futures are higher while corn and wheat prices are lower.
In early trading, the September corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.27¼. Dec. corn futures are 1¼¢ higher at $3.36¼.
Aug. soybean futures are 3½¢ higher at $9.08¼. November soybean futures are 3½¢ higher at $9.02¾.
Sep. wheat futures are 8¼¢ lower at $5.31¼.
Sep. soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton higher at $296.20. Aug. soy oil futures are 0.26¢ lower at 29.54¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.23 per barrel lower at $41.06. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 32 points lower.
Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors is anticipating today’s weekly Crop Progress Report from USDA.
“The USDA Crop Progress Report today will show corn conditions steady to 1% better and soybeans about steady,” Kluis says. “I now think the USDA Crop yield estimates in August will be at or just slightly above the earlier trendline projections.”
“Watch the U.S. drought monitor,” he adds. “The map shows two major areas of concern. First is Ohio and much of eastern Indiana; second is western Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and parts of Kansas. What concerns me is how much of Iowa has turned very dry over the last two weeks. Rain is in the forecast for later this week. It needs to hit in the dry areas by late this week or corn yields will move lower in Iowa.”
Continued soybean purchases by China in a USDA report today may also be adding support to soybean prices.
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
• Export sales of 250,371 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
• Export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
The Link LonkJuly 29, 2020 at 08:52PM
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Wheat moves higher, corn and soybeans fall Wednesday - Successful Farming
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