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Friday, July 31, 2020

Grape Seeds Show How A Pandemic And Climate Change Contributed To Past Economic Crisis - Forbes

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The coronavirus pandemic and anthropogenic climate change are two pressing socio-economic issues of our times. Societies of the past had to deal with similar problems, and not always successful.

A research team from Israel discovered evidence suggesting that a combination of diseases and climate change, triggered by a volcanic eruption, contributed to a system-wide economic crisis in the Mediterranean region around 540 BC.

The researchers excavated and studied the remains of three settlements in the modern Negev Desert. The city of Elusa was the cultural center of the region, as the discovery of ruins of great temples, public baths and theaters shows. A complex irrigation system contributed to the wealth of the city, making it possible to grow wine in the desert. Contemporary sources praise the quality of the wine exported from the harbor of Gaza into the entire Mediterranean region.

Counting grape-seeds preserved in the sediments deposited on the bottom of former garbage pits and comparing them to the remains of grain found in the same layers, the researchers were able to reconstruct the city's economic evolution between the 4th to the 6th century. A surplus of grape-seeds suggests wine production for export was the most important economic factor at the time. A surplus of crop remains suggests that vineyards were transformed into grain fields to feed the local population.

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The research shows a continuous growth of wine export until the middle of the 6th century, followed by sudden collapse and abandonment of the settlements.

The 6th century was a time of general crisis in the Mediterranean region. The Justinian plague struck the Byzantine Empire between 541 and 750 CE and is estimated to have killed between 30 and 50 million people. Especially cold years around 541 CE caused widespread crop failures, resulting in widespread migrations of peoples within or into Europe fleeing famine, diseases and war.

Geologists believe that two powerful volcanic eruptions, the largest in the last 2,000 years, are to blame for the cold snaps. If an eruption is powerful enough to send volcanic ash and gases high into Earth's atmosphere, the resulting haze can shield the surface from the sunlight, causing a worldwide drop in temperatures. It remains uncertain to this day which volcanoes erupted in 536 and 540/541 CE. Some geologists argued that the volcano was located in Iceland, others argue that the volcanic eruption happened somewhere along the equator, based on traces of sulfur preserved in ice-layers recovered from the ice shield of Greenland and Antarctica. Possible candidates include the Tavurvur in Papa-Neuguinea, the Ilopango in El Salvador, the Krakatau in Indonesia and other volcanoes from Java to Sumatra.

The Israeli research team thinks that two factors were involved in the demise of the city of Elusa. As the climate cooled down in 541, less rain fell in the Negev region, making it impossible to grow wine of good quality any longer. More important was the political crisis experienced in the countries of the northern Mediterranean region. The reduced demand of imported wine resulted in an economic crisis in the Negev, leading finally to the abandonment of the settlements.

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July 31, 2020 at 05:08PM
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Grape Seeds Show How A Pandemic And Climate Change Contributed To Past Economic Crisis - Forbes

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