BEIJING, Feb 9 (Reuters) - China's corn prices will remain high in 2020/21, supported by strong demand from the livestock sector and rising import costs, the country's agriculture ministry said on Tuesday. Anticipating a continued rise in prices of the grain, buyers are building up corn stockpiles as a recovery in pig production exceeds expectations and poultry flocks remain at high levels, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in a monthly report. Commercial corn stocks in some areas in China have hit multi-year highs as traders and feed producers built up inventories of the grain amid concerns over supply shortages. Meanwhile, increasing China imports and capital speculation have boosted international corn prices, which lent further support to the domestic market, the ministry said. The ministry did not change its February forecasts for 2020/21 production, consumption and imports of corn from the previous month. Its February estimates on soybean, brought in by importers to crush into soymeal for the livestock sector, are also the same as January. Key numbers from the monthly China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (CASDE) are below: 2018/2019 2019/20 2020/21 2020/21 Percentage February January February change Estimate Forecast Forecast Corn - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 42.13 41.28 41.26 41.26 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output 257.17 260.77 260.67 260.67 0.00% (mln tonnes) Imports 4.48 7.60 10.00 10.00 0.00% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 279.78 278.30 289.16 289.16 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance -18.15 -9.94 -18.51 -18.51 0.00% (mln tonnes) Soybean - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 8.40 9.35 9.88 9.88 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output 16.00 18.10 19.60 19.60 0.00% (mln tonnes) Imports 82.61 98.53 98.10 98.10 0.00% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 102.93 108.60 116.12 116.12 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.12 0.09 0.15 0.15 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance -4.44 7.94 1.43 1.43 0.00% (mln tonnes) Cotton - crop year Sept-Aug Beginning 7.43 7.21 7.36 7.36 0.00% stocks (mln tonnes) Planted 3.37 3.30 3.17 3.17 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Output 6.04 5.80 5.91 5.91 0.00% (mln tonnes) Imports 2.03 1.60 2.10 2.20 4.76% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 8.24 7.23 8.00 8.00 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.03 -40.00% (mln tonnes) Ending 7.21 7.36 7.32 7.44 1.64% Stocks (mln tonnes) Sugar - crop year Oct-Sept Planted 1.44 1.38 1.45 1.45 0.00% acreage (mln hectares) Cane 1.21 1.17 1.19 1.19 0.00% Beet 0.24 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.00% Output 10.76 10.42 10.50 10.50 0.00% (mln tonnes) Cane 9.44 9.02 8.96 8.96 0.00% sugar Beet 1.32 1.39 1.54 1.54 0.00% sugar Imports 3.24 3.76 3.90 3.90 0.00% (mln tonnes) Consumpti 15.20 15.00 15.30 15.30 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance -1.40 -1.00 -1.08 -1.08 0.00% (mln tonnes) Edible oils - crop year Oct-Sept Output 25.49 28.27 28.16 28.24 0.28% (mln tonnes) Soybean 14.31 17.01 17.10 17.10 0.00% oil Rapeseed 5.69 5.65 5.26 5.32 1.14% Peanut 3.18 3.29 3.39 3.39 0.00% oil Imports 8.55 9.27 8.45 8.45 0.00% (mln tonnes) Palm oil 4.95 4.62 4.20 4.20 0.00% Rapeseed 1.51 1.90 1.80 1.80 0.00% Soybean 0.78 0.96 0.70 0.70 0.00% oil Consumpti 33.38 32.87 35.32 35.32 0.00% on (mln tonnes) Exports 0.27 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.00% (mln tonnes) Balance 0.40 4.43 1.03 1.11 7.77% (mln tonnes) CASDE includes beginning and ending stocks for cotton, which Reuters assumes to include the cotton held by state reserves. Therefore, ending stocks cited in this table are the beginning stocks plus the latest year’s crop and imports, minus consumption and exports. For all other products, CASDE only includes the balance at the end of the crop year. This appears to be the result of the crop output plus imports minus consumption and exports. (Reporting by Hallie Gu and Shivani Singh; Editing by Devika Syamnath)
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TABLE-China's corn prices to remain high in 2020/21 - ag ministry - Successful Farming
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